Navigating the US Economy: Sell Now or Wait?

Navigating the US Economy: Current Landscape and Projections Through 2028

As of August 2025, the US economy stands at a crossroads, showing resilience amid cooling growth and persistent inflationary pressures. Recent data paints a picture of a softening labor market, steady but moderated wage increases, and elevated interest rates aimed at taming inflation.

With the Federal Reserve maintaining a cautious stance, mortgage rates remain high, impacting housing affordability.

Looking ahead to 2028, projections from sources like the IMF (International Monetary Fund), OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development), CBO (US Congressional Budget Office), and private firms such as Deloitte suggest a “soft landing” with gradual easing, though risks from policy shifts and global tensions loom.

This article explores the current state, three-year outlook for key indicators—jobs, wages, Fed funds rate, and mortgage rates—and their implications for home prices.

The Current Economic Snapshot

The labor market, a cornerstone of economic health, is displaying cracks. In July 2025, nonfarm payrolls added just 73,000 jobs, far below expectations, pushing the unemployment rate to 4.2%. This follows downward revisions to prior months, signaling broader weakness amid trade tensions and high borrowing costs. Sectors like healthcare and government provided gains, but manufacturing and retail lagged.

Average hourly earnings rose 3.9% year-over-year, offering some buffer for consumers as inflation hovers around 2.5-3%. This wage growth, while down from pandemic highs, supports spending but contributes to sticky prices.

The Federal Reserve’s (“The Fed”) federal funds rate remains at 4.25%-4.50%, unchanged for the fifth meeting, with the effective rate at 4.33%. This restrictive policy reflects ongoing efforts to achieve 2% inflation, with recent PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) readings showing progress but not completion.

Mortgage rates, tied closely to Fed actions and Treasury yields, have dipped slightly but stay elevated. As of early August, the 30-year fixed rate averages 6.63%, down from 6.72% the prior week, yet still burdensome for buyers. Overall, GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth rebounded to about 1.7% in the Second Quarter after a First Quarter contraction, but headwinds persist.

Projections for 2026-2028: A Path to Moderation

Forecasts indicate a slowdown in 2025-2026 before stabilization, with GDP growth averaging 1.5-1.8% annually through 2028. The CBO projects unemployment rising to 4.4-4.9% in 2026 due to weaker demand, then easing to 4.2-4.4% by 2028 as the economy adjusts.

Job growth may average 100,000-150,000 monthly, sufficient for labor force expansion but below recent peaks. Wage growth is expected to decelerate to 3.0-3.5% in 2026, then 2.7-3.0% by 2028, aligning with productivity gains and lower inflation.

The Fed is anticipated to begin rate cuts late 2025, reducing the funds rate to 3.4-3.9% by end-2026, 3.1-3.4% in 2027, and 2.9-3.1% by 2028, per IMF and Deloitte outlooks. This assumes inflation nears 2%, enabling a neutral stance.

Mortgage rates should follow suit, dropping to 6.1-6.5% in 2026, 5.5-6.0% in 2027, and 5.0-5.97% by 2028, boosting borrowing.

✅Kentucky Tom Pro Tip: Tariffs and fiscal deficits could push rates higher, per OECD warnings.

The IMF sees global growth at 3.3% in 2025-2026, supporting US exports, while CBO notes deficits totaling $20 trillion over 2025-2034, potentially elevating long-term rates. Deloitte highlights risks from elevated interest rates curbing investment, yet expects a return to trend growth by 2027.

Ripple Effects on Home Sale Pricing

These economic dynamics will shape the housing market, where low inventory and high rates have stifled activity.

Currently, median home prices sit at $410,000-$415,000, up 3-4% year-over-year. Falling mortgage rates are poised to enhance affordability, increasing demand and supporting 2-4% annual price growth through 2028. Fannie Mae forecasts rates ending 2026 at 6.0%, enabling median prices to reach $430,000-$455,000 by 2027.

Modest unemployment rises in 2026 could temper buyer enthusiasm, potentially capping gains at 2%, especially in overvalued metros. Yet, wage increases above inflation will bolster purchasing power for first-time buyers, per NAR projections of 2-4.9% growth.

✅Kentucky Tom Pro Tip: Zillow, however, warns of a possible 1.7% dip in 2025-2026 if inventory surges 19%, though recovery follows by 2028.

Fed easing will indirectly stimulate construction, adding 200,000-300,000 homes annually, easing supply shortages and moderating prices to 1.5-3.5% growth in 2028.

Regional disparities persist: Affordable Midwest markets may see stronger appreciation, while coastal areas face flatter trajectories due to affordability strains.

Implications for Home Sellers in the US Housing Market (2025-2028)

As a house seller in August 2025, the evolving economic landscape—characterized by a softening job market, gradual wage growth, and anticipated declines in the federal funds rate and mortgage rates—presents both opportunities and challenges.

Home prices are projected to appreciate modestly at 2-4% annually through 2028, driven by persistent low inventory and improving affordability as rates fall from around 6.7% now to 5.0-6.0% by 2028. This means sellers could benefit from higher demand and potentially stronger offers over time, but the market remains “frozen” in the short term due to high rates limiting buyer pools. No major crash is expected, thanks to undersupply and steady economic growth, but sales activity may stay subdued in late 2025 before ramping up 7-15% annually from 2026 onward.

✅Kentucky Tom Pro Tip: For sellers, key factors include:

- Buyer Demand: High mortgage rates (still above 6% through mid-2026) deter buyers now, leading to longer listing times and possible price negotiations. As rates dip to 5.5-6.0% by late 2025-2027, demand surges, potentially reviving bidding wars in desirable areas.
- Home Prices: Modest gains (3.4-3.8% in 2025-2026, slowing to 1.5-3.5% by 2028) suggest waiting could net a higher sale price—e.g., a $410,000 home today might fetch $440,000-$470,000 by 2028—but flatter growth later means diminishing returns.
- Inventory and Competition: Low supply (due to “rate lock-in” for existing homeowners) favors sellers now, but easing rates could prompt more listings by 2027-2028, increasing competition and capping price upside.
- Economic Risks: Rising unemployment (to 4.4-4.9% in 2026) might cool buyer sentiment short-term, while wage growth (2.7-3.5%) supports affordability longer-term. Broader risks like tariffs or deficits could keep rates higher, delaying recovery.

Ultimately, this period favors patient sellers who can afford to wait, as market conditions improve with rate cuts. However, personal factors—like financial needs, relocation, or local market dynamics—should guide decisions. Regional variations matter: Hot markets (e.g., Midwest) may see stronger gains, while overvalued coastal areas flatten sooner.

Should You Sell in 2025 or Wait Until 2028?

The decision hinges on your timeline and risk tolerance.

Selling in 2025 locks in current elevated prices amid low competition, but waiting until 2028 could yield 7-14% more in value from appreciation, plus a hotter market with more buyers.

Experts generally advise against waiting indefinitely, as price growth slows post-2026, and some predict 2025 as a “last chance” to sell at peak before normalization. If you must sell soon, target summer 2025 for seasonal demand; avoid winter months like December-January for weaker activity.

The table below outlines pros and cons based on projections:

Option	Pros	Cons
Sell in 2025	– Capture 3-4% YoY (Year-over-Year) price gains before potential slowdown. – Low inventory means less competition, stronger negotiating power. – Avoid holding costs (taxes, maintenance) during uncertain economy. – Ideal if you need liquidity amid rising unemployment risks.	– High rates limit buyers, leading to slower sales and possible concessions. – Miss out on further 5-10% appreciation by 2028. – Subdued sales volume could mean longer time on market.
Wait Until 2028	– Benefit from cumulative price growth (1.5-3.5% annually post-2026). – Lower rates (5.0-5.97%) attract more buyers, faster sales, higher offers. – Wage and job stabilization supports stronger demand by 2028. – Potential for increased transactions (10-15% YoY).	– Opportunity costs: Ongoing expenses and missed investment returns. – Risk of flatter or declining prices if economy weakens (e.g., recession). – More listings as rates fall, increasing seller competition. – Uncertainty from policy changes or global events.

Recommendations

If you have no urgent need to sell (e.g., job relocation or financial strain), consider waiting until 2026-2027. This sweet spot aligns with rate cuts boosting demand while prices still appreciate meaningfully, potentially maximizing your return.

By 2028, gains may taper, making it less advantageous unless your local market booms.

Consult a local realtor for personalized advice, as national trends vary. In any case, prepare your home now—curb appeal and staging can add value regardless of timing.

For Your Consideration

The US economy is set for measured progress, avoiding recession but navigating challenges like deficits and tariffs. By 2028, a stabilized job market, tempered wages, and lower rates should foster sustainable growth.

For housing, this translates to gradual price appreciation, making homeownership more attainable over time. Yet, uncertainties—such as election outcomes or geopolitical events—could alter this trajectory. Policymakers must balance fiscal prudence with support for vulnerable sectors to ensure broad-based prosperity.

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